Human Resource Forecasting: Preparing the Workforce for a Changing World

By: Nada Lutfiah
Management Study Program, Pamulang University

JurnalPost.com - Indonesian labor data from early 2026 shows positive developments. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) in February 2026 at 4.68 percent, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared to February 2025.

The total labor force reached approximately 154.91 million people. Of that number, about 147.67 million were recorded as employed. Looking solely at the unemployment figures, this condition appears quite encouraging.

However, the reality of the job market is far more complex.

Approximately 49.08 million people, or 33.23 percent of workers, remain in the underemployed category. Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Manpower shows that 77,965 workers were laid off throughout 2024, a figure that rose to 88,519 in 2025.

This situation highlights an interesting paradox. On one hand, many companies report difficulty finding workers with specific skills. On the other hand, there are still workers who have lost their jobs or have yet to find optimal employment.

As a student who will eventually enter the workforce, I see that this issue is not just about the number of available jobs. One area that requires attention is how companies plan their workforce needs well in advance.

Why is HR Planning Important?

Human resource planning is the process an organization undertakes to ensure the availability of a workforce that meets its needs, both in terms of quantity and competency.

HR holds a vital position in a company because people are the ones who execute strategies, manage technology, serve customers, make decisions, and develop the business.

A company may have significant capital, advanced technology, and a mature business strategy, but all of that is difficult to translate into maximum results if not supported by people with the appropriate skills.

The problem is that the world of work is changing at an accelerating pace.

Digitalization is changing how companies conduct business processes. Automation is beginning to take over routine tasks. Changing consumer behavior is forcing companies to adjust their products and services. At the same time, business competition is becoming increasingly intense.

In such a situation, it is not enough for a company to simply look for workers once the need arises.

The recruitment process takes time. Once a worker is hired, the company must still conduct orientation, training, and competency development. For specific skills that are hard to find, the process can take even longer.

Therefore, companies need the ability to forecast their future workforce requirements.

Understanding Human Resource Forecasting

HR forecasting or human resource forecasting is the process of estimating future workforce needs while simultaneously assessing the labor availability within the organization.

Its purpose is not to predict the future with absolute precision, but to provide a foundation for companies to make informed workforce decisions.

By conducting forecasting, a company can determine whether it will face a labor shortage, a labor surplus, or a deficiency in specific competencies in the coming months or years.

The relationship between forecasting and HR planning can be likened to a map and navigation.

Forecasting provides a picture of the conditions the company is likely to face. Meanwhile, HR planning determines the actions to be taken, such as recruiting new staff, providing training, promoting employees, transferring staff, or delaying recruitment.

Many factors influence workforce needs.

From the internal environment, these needs are influenced by business strategy, expansion plans, budget capacity, productivity levels, the number of employees nearing retirement, and the rate of employee turnover or turnover.

Meanwhile, from the external environment, companies must consider economic conditions, technological developments, labor regulations, labor availability in the market, and shifts in business competition.

How is HR Forecasting Conducted?

In general, workforce forecasting can be divided into three main stages.

The first stage is demand forecasting. In this stage, the company estimates the number of workers needed and the competencies they must possess.

The second stage is supply forecasting. The company estimates the workforce likely to remain available after accounting for factors such as retirement, resignations, promotions, transfers, and employee turnover.

The final stage is gap analysis.

At this stage, workforce demand is compared against supply. This allows the company to identify whether there is a shortage or surplus in the number of employees or specific skill sets.

Several methods can be used for HR forecasting.

Trend analysis, for example, uses historical workforce data from previous years to project future needs.

There is also ratio analysis, which links the number of employees to specific business indicators. For example, a company can calculate how many customer service representatives are needed to handle a certain volume of customers.

Another method is workload analysis, which calculates the amount of work time required to complete a specific task.

In addition to quantitative approaches, companies can also use expert judgment, which involves the opinions of managers or experts who have direct knowledge of the organization's conditions.

It Is Not Just About Counting Heads

Imagine an online store has 20 customer service staff. Each person is capable of handling an average of 50 orders per day.

If the company forecasts a 30 percent increase in orders for the following year, a simple calculation might suggest that the workforce requirement will increase to about 26 people.

However, good forecasting does not stop at that number.

What if two senior staff members plan to resign?

What if the company starts using a chatbot to answer standard customer inquiries?

These conditions can change workforce requirements.

The company might not need many additional customer service operators, but rather workers capable of handling complex complaints, analyzing customer data, or managing automated systems.

This means that HR forecasting does not just answer the question of how many people are needed, but also what skills those workers must possess.

This example is a hypothetical illustration and is not based on data from any specific company.

HR Forecasting in Theoretical Perspective

Dessler (2020) explains that HR planning includes forecasting labor demand, forecasting labor supply, and determining the gap between the two. Tools that can be used include trend analysis, ratio analysis, and computer-based projections.

Mathis, Jackson, Valentine, and Meglich (2017) also position workforce forecasting as part of the HR planning process that must be aligned with organizational goals.

Armstrong and Taylor (2020) emphasize that workforce planning is not just about the number of employees. Organizations also need to consider various scenarios of change that may occur in the future.

Meanwhile, Hasibuan (2016) views HR planning as an effort to prepare the workforce to meet organizational needs effectively and efficiently.

From these various perspectives, it is clear that forecasting is a crucial part of HR planning.

HR Forecasting Is Not Just an Administrative Task

In my opinion, one common mistake is viewing workforce planning solely as a Human Resources department task.

In reality, business decisions are almost always directly related to workforce needs.

When a company plans to expand, enter new markets, build branches, implement automation, or develop new products, the requirements for the number and competency of the workforce will change accordingly.

If the HR department is only involved after business decisions have been made, the company risks having a great strategy but no one capable of executing it.

Therefore, HR forecasting should be an integral part of a company's strategic planning.

Errors in estimating workforce needs can also lead to significant costs.

If the workforce is too small, the workload increases, service may be disrupted, targets become difficult to achieve, and employees risk burnout.

Conversely, an excessive number of employees can increase company costs and, in certain conditions, lead to layoffs.

Of course, not all layoffs are caused by a company's failure in HR planning.

The Ministry of Manpower, for instance, has cited global geopolitical pressures affecting international trade as a factor influencing the wave of layoffs in 2025.

Situations like that are indeed difficult to predict entirely.

However, companies that have multiple workforce scenarios will have more options in facing change. These options could include retraining, transferring workers to other departments, adjusting work patterns, or developing new competencies before resorting to layoffs.

Competency Will Be a Major Challenge

Another equally important challenge is the shift in skills.

The Future of Jobs Report 2025 from the World Economic Forum estimates that about 170 million new jobs will be created globally by 2030. At the same time, about 92 million jobs are expected to be displaced, resulting in a net increase of about 78 million jobs.

The report also estimates that about 39 percent of the skills currently held by workers will change or become less relevant by 2030.

This data is a global overview based on surveys of employers and cannot be treated as a specific prediction for Indonesia's conditions.

However, the message remains important.

Companies that only count the number of workers without paying attention to skill development risk experiencing a competency gap.

The question companies need to ask is no longer just, “How many employees do we need?”

The more important question is, “What skills will the company need in the next few years?”

Data Is Important, but Humans Provide Context

Technological developments make it increasingly possible to conduct HR forecasting based on data.

Companies can use attendance data, productivity, turnover rates, turnover, employee age, organizational performance, and sales projections to estimate workforce needs.

This data can be combined with external information such as BPS labor data or the One Data for Manpower from the Ministry of Manpower.

However, I do not fully agree with the view that all workforce issues can be predicted solely through numbers.

Humans have many factors that are difficult to translate into data.

An employee can resign suddenly. The morale of a team can change due to a change in leadership. An employee previously considered average can show great ability when given the opportunity to work on new tasks.

Statistical models are not always able to read such situations.

Therefore, in my opinion, the best method is to combine data-driven analysis with the managerial judgment of people who understand the team's condition directly.

Numbers provide direction, while humans provide context.

What Can Companies Do?

Companies do not always need expensive and complex systems to start workforce forecasting.

The first thing that can be done is to evaluate workforce needs periodically. In fast-changing industries, annual planning may no longer be enough. Evaluations can be done quarterly or when major changes occur in business strategy.

Companies also need to utilize existing internal data, ranging from employee numbers, productivity, turnover rates, and workload, to company growth plans.

The next step is to conduct competency mapping.

Companies must know what skills each employee possesses and what abilities still need to be developed.

With this mapping, companies do not always have to look for new workers when new needs arise. Existing employees can first be provided with upskilling or reskillingprograms.

Upskilling aims to improve a person's ability in their current field, while reskilling prepares workers to perform new types of jobs or skills.

Companies also need to build a talent pipeline and succession planning, especially for strategic positions.

Organizations should not wait for an important employee to leave before starting to look for a replacement.

Finally, companies must continuously evaluate the results of their forecasting.

Workforce demand predictions must be compared with actual conditions. From this process, companies can determine whether the forecasting method used is accurate enough or still needs improvement.

Conclusion

Human resource forecasting is not just about calculating how many employees a company will need in the following year.

More broadly, HR forecasting is the process of preparing people with the number, skills, and competencies that match the organization's future needs.

Technological changes, economic conditions, business competition, and the changing nature of work mean that companies can no longer rely solely on reactive approaches.

Companies that only look for workers when the need is urgent will always be chasing change.

Conversely, organizations that are able to read trends, utilize data, map competencies, and prepare their workforce early have a greater chance of adapting.

Such planning also provides benefits for workers.

When companies understand future competency needs, workers can gain opportunities to learn, improve their skills, and prepare themselves before changes actually occur.

Ultimately, HR forecasting is not about predicting the future perfectly. Forecasting is about making an organization and its workforce better prepared to face a future that is never entirely certain.

References

Statistics Indonesia. (2026). Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) of 4.68 percent; average labor wage of 3.29 million rupiah. Official Statistical News, May 5, 2026.

CNBC Indonesia. (2026, January 21). Ministry of Manpower points to causes for 88,519 layoffs, this business sector is the highest.

Ministry of Manpower of the Republic of Indonesia. (2025). One Data for Manpower: Data on Laid-off Workers.

SWA.co.id. (2026). Unemployment drops to 4.68%, BPS says early 2026 job market remains expansive.

Tempo.co. (2025, March 31). Ministry of Manpower: 18,610 workers laid off in the first two months of 2025.

World Economic Forum. (2025). Future of Jobs Report 2025.

World Economic Forum. (2025, January 8). Future of Jobs Report 2025: 78 Million New Job Opportunities by 2030 but Urgent Upskilling Needed to Prepare Workforces.