Beyond Recruitment: Why Companies Must Forecast Their HR Needs

By: Annisa Fajrina, Student at Universitas Pamulang

JurnalPost.com - Whenever a company feels it is short-staffed, the shortcut taken is almost always the same: opening vacancies, posting ads, conducting interviews, and hiring new employees. It is as if human resources issues are only about whether the number of people in the company is sufficient or not.

In reality, the world of work today is far more complex.

A 2021 Michael Page survey found that many companies in Indonesia still face a gap between the competencies of available employees and the competencies actually required in the field, as cited by ITS News in 2022.

These findings show that the number of employees who appear "sufficient" in terms of headcount may not necessarily be capable of meeting the company's actual needs.

This is where the problem lies. Many companies only realize they need additional staff, or that their existing workforce's competencies are no longer suitable, after problems have already emerged.

Such reactive recruitment patterns ultimately serve only as a stopgap solution, rather than part of a long-term strategy.

Companies Need to Plan HR

There is a more mature approach to dealing with these issues, namely through human resource planning and forecasting, or human resource planning (HRP).

A study published in the Journal of Business and Management (JURBISMAN) in 2025 explains that the situational analysis stage in HR planning involves forecasting labor needs through scientific methods, such as forecasting and trend analysis.

This approach allows organizations to anticipate changes in labor requirements in both the short and long term. Forecasting can also help companies reduce the risk of imbalances between the demand and supply of human resources, which can lead to inefficiency.

In other words, forecasting is not just an administrative tool. HR forecasting is a mechanism that companies can use to detect and prevent labor issues before they actually occur.

Another study from Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta also emphasizes that HR planning is essentially a process that connects company goals with future workforce planning.

This means that human resource planning should not operate separately from the company's business direction. Forecasting HR needs should be part of the company's strategy, not just an administrative task for the HR department.

Recruitment Should Not Be the First Step

This is where my opinion stems from.

Recruitment should not always be the first solution when a company feels it needs human resources. Recruitment should actually be carried out only after the company has truly ensured that the need cannot be met through existing resources.

Practically speaking, the reasons are quite clear.

An HRD Forum article on workforce demand forecasting explains that accurate labor forecasting can provide a number of strategic benefits, ranging from supporting the achievement of business strategies, optimizing labor costs, accelerating decision-making, reducing the risk of competency shortages, to increasing organizational readiness for change.

These benefits are difficult to obtain if a company only relies on reactive recruitment. This is because reactive recruitment is generally only done when a shortage of staff or competencies has already occurred.

Companies end up constantly chasing problems rather than anticipating them.

Not Just Quantity, but Also Competency

Another thing that is often overlooked is that the need for human resources is not just about quantity, but also quality.

A company may have a sufficient number of employees. However, the skills possessed by those employees may not necessarily match the needs of the evolving job.

A study in a journal published by Universitas Pamulang regarding skill gaps in the digital transformation era clearly illustrates this phenomenon.

Digital technology development moves very fast, while the adaptability of human resources does not always evolve at the same speed. This lack of synchronization can create a skill gap or skill gap.

This issue is not just a technical problem in the company's operational activities. If left unchecked, competency gaps can hinder performance improvement while reducing the organization's competitiveness.

Therefore, HR forecasting is not enough to just answer the question, "How many people do we need?"

An equally important question is, "What kind of competencies will we need in our people?"

Training Can Be an Alternative Before Hiring

The next question is no longer just whether the company needs new employees, but whether that need can actually be met by existing employees through training and development.

Companies need to consider whether a competency gap can be resolved through upskilling and reskilling, or if it truly requires new talent from outside the organization.

Companies that periodically forecast HR needs will be better prepared to answer that question because decisions are not made based solely on momentary conditions.

A study from Universitas Pamulang also recommends that organizations start shifting from traditional training models toward a more dynamic learning ecosystem.

The goal is to build technical capabilities as well as the cognitive agility of employees on an ongoing basis.

This means that the solution to HR gaps does not always have to start with opening job vacancies.

Companies can first improve how they develop the workforce they already have. If the need still cannot be met internally, then external recruitment becomes a rational choice.

HR Must Be Viewed as an Asset

This approach also changes how companies view their workforce.

HR should not be treated like "consumables" that are only sought when supplies are deemed low. Employees are organizational assets whose competencies need to be planned, developed, and aligned with future business needs.

Therefore, decisions regarding human resources should be based on data, trends, organizational needs, and business projections, not merely on reactions after problems have occurred.

Ultimately, recruitment is certainly still needed. There is nothing wrong with hiring new workers when the organization truly requires them.

However, if recruitment becomes the only way a company manages its labor needs, then the company needs to re-evaluate how it plans its human resources.

Amidst the increasingly rapid changes in business and technology, companies need to move from a reactive pattern to a more predictive one.

It is not enough for companies to be good at recruiting. They must also be able to forecast HR needs before those needs turn into problems.

Reference Sources

1. Journal of Business and Management (JURBISMAN), Vol. 3 No. 3, September 2025, “Human Resource Planning (HRP): A Theoretical Study.”

2. Journal of Business Management, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, “Human Resource Planning to Achieve Competitive Advantage.”

3. HRD Forum, “Workforce Demand Forecasting: How to Accurately Predict Labor Needs to Support Business Strategy.”

4. Open Journal Universitas Pamulang (SNH), Vol. 6 No. 2, June 2026, study on upskilling and reskilling strategies in facing skill gaps in the digital transformation era.

5. ITS News (2022), citing a Michael Page survey (2021) regarding skill gaps in Indonesian companies.